TERI study finds CNG will still power India's vehicles in 2050

A new study from The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) has a message that may surprise EV evangelists: India's road transport won't be fully electric by 2050. Compressed natural gas (CNG) will still have a role to play.

The finding, reported by Firstpost, comes from a modelling exercise that looks at how India's vehicle fleet could evolve over the next quarter-century. The headline number is simple enough. Electric vehicles will grow. But they won't push CNG out of the picture entirely.

Why CNG sticks around

India already runs one of the world's largest CNG bus fleets. Cities like Delhi, Mumbai and Ahmedabad have thousands of buses running on the fuel. Auto-rickshaws and taxis in several states use it too. The infrastructure, pipelines, daughter stations, retail outlets, is built and paid for.

That matters. Building a nationwide charging network for electric trucks and buses takes time and money. CNG stations already exist. For heavy vehicles that run long routes, swapping diesel for CNG is a cheaper, quicker cut in emissions than waiting for electric models to arrive.

TERI's study doesn't argue against electric vehicles. It argues against a single-fuel future. The transport sector will likely run on a mix: batteries for cars and two-wheelers, CNG for buses and freight, and possibly hydrogen for some long-haul routes later on.

The numbers behind the claim

The study models different scenarios out to 2050. It doesn't give a single forecast. Instead, it shows a range of possible outcomes depending on policy choices, fuel prices and technology costs. In most of those scenarios, CNG demand doesn't fall to zero.

That's a useful reality check. Government policy has pushed hard for electric mobility. Subsidies under the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles (FAME) scheme have helped sales. Several states offer road tax waivers and charging infrastructure support. But the shift is uneven. Electric buses are still expensive. Charging stations are concentrated in a few cities. Rural and semi-urban areas lag behind.

CNG, by contrast, is already widespread. It's also cheaper per kilometre than petrol or diesel in many cases. For commercial operators working on thin margins, that matters more than tailpipe emissions.

What it means for policy

The study's implication is straightforward. India shouldn't treat CNG as a temporary bridge that will disappear in a decade. It's likely to be part of the fleet for another generation. That means continued investment in CNG infrastructure makes sense, especially for public transport and freight.

At the same time, the study doesn't say electric vehicles are a bad bet. It says the transition will be slower and more varied than some headlines suggest. Different vehicle segments will move at different speeds. Two-wheelers and three-wheelers are already going electric in large numbers. Cars are following. Buses and trucks are harder.

For a country that imports most of its crude oil, every litre of diesel replaced by CNG or electricity is a win for the trade balance. The question is which fuel replaces it, where, and how fast. TERI's answer: both, for a long time.

The study adds detail to a debate that often swings between extremes. On one side are those who see an all-electric future just around the corner. On the other are those who doubt the grid can handle it. The truth, according to TERI, sits in the middle. CNG isn't going away. Neither is the electric push. They'll share the road.